For most investors focused on the U.K., Europe and/or the United States, July was far from an unattractive month in all but a minority of equity sectors. This pleasingly allowed a further building of year-to-date returns. Meanwhile bond market yields generally tightened further. Although fixed income markets remain on average dull performers in 2021, performance has improved in recent months.
Compared to the start of the year, such progress should allow the average investor to feel confident. And whilst challenges remain (including the generation of the term ‘pingdemic’), it is impressive
to read that more than 72.5% of U.K. adults have received two COVID-19 vaccinations so far, which has allowed both national and international travel to slowly restart over recent months
July also saw the publication of a generally well-received set of corporate earnings data and a solid IMF world economic overview, which showed anticipated growth of 6% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022.
Whilst numbers were maintained for developed market countries – including anticipated U.K. growth of 7% this year and 4.8% next year – some emerging market economies saw a reduction in their anticipated growth numbers. Whilst overall emerging-market shares hit 17-year relative lows versus developed market comparison, the biggest losses in July came in China.
It is not difficult to see considerable economic growth and population wealth growth in China over the 2020s, but recent high volatility levels have been centered on recent bouts of heightened
levels of Chinese government interventions impacting a number of important sectors. Heightened levels of financial regulation are not uncommon in any country, however the speed of policy
changes can be considerably faster in China than in more classically democratic economies.
Nevertheless opportunities for the emerging markets – including China – remain positive for this decade, aided not only by growth in population wealth but also by lower debt levels. The latter point remains (on average) at a much lower percentage of GDP compared to the developed markets. This point has over recent years been particularly reflected by central bank policy across the developed markets. It is certainly striking to observe that the Bank of England’s current very low interest rates had — prior to the ‘financial crisis’ well over a decade ago – never previously been below a 2% level. Meanwhile recent OECD figures observe that annual house price growth across wealthy nations has gained over 9% in recent months — its fastest pace for 30 years. The ability of the U.K., Europe and the United States to combine ongoing stimulus and recovering economic growth levels with very low interest rates and bond yields and still not worry about inflation, is becoming more of a debate.
Fortunately for 2021 debate can remain more focused on a continued movement away from the COVID-19 challenges of last year. That has been a really positive surprise of the first seven months of the year. Now talk about debt levels and their impact on inflation, bond yields and equity market valuations will become more relevant. There are many reasons to be positive, just not
about everything almost all of the time. The key remains to stay both global and active.
The information contained in this article is for general consideration only and any opinion or forecast reflects the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. as at the date of issue and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You should not take, or refrain from taking, action based on its content and no part of this article should be relied upon or construed as any form of advice or personal recommendation. The research and analysis in this article have been procured, and may have been acted upon, by Raymond James and connected companies for their own purposes, and the results are being made available to you on this understanding.
Neither Raymond James nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon such research and analysis. If you are unsure or need clarity upon any of the information covered in this article, please contact your wealth manager.
For most investors focused on the U.K., Europe and/or the United States, July was far from an unattractive month in all but a minority of equity sectors. This pleasingly allowed a further building of year-to-date returns. Meanwhile bond market yields generally tightened further. Although fixed income markets remain on average dull performers in 2021, performance has improved in recent months.
Compared to the start of the year, such progress should allow the average investor to feel confident. And whilst challenges remain (including the generation of the term ‘pingdemic’), it is impressive
to read that more than 72.5% of U.K. adults have received two COVID-19 vaccinations so far, which has allowed both national and international travel to slowly restart over recent months
July also saw the publication of a generally well-received set of corporate earnings data and a solid IMF world economic overview, which showed anticipated growth of 6% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022.
Whilst numbers were maintained for developed market countries – including anticipated U.K. growth of 7% this year and 4.8% next year – some emerging market economies saw a reduction in their anticipated growth numbers. Whilst overall emerging-market shares hit 17-year relative lows versus developed market comparison, the biggest losses in July came in China.
It is not difficult to see considerable economic growth and population wealth growth in China over the 2020s, but recent high volatility levels have been centered on recent bouts of heightened
levels of Chinese government interventions impacting a number of important sectors. Heightened levels of financial regulation are not uncommon in any country, however the speed of policy
changes can be considerably faster in China than in more classically democratic economies.
Nevertheless opportunities for the emerging markets – including China – remain positive for this decade, aided not only by growth in population wealth but also by lower debt levels. The latter point remains (on average) at a much lower percentage of GDP compared to the developed markets. This point has over recent years been particularly reflected by central bank policy across the developed markets. It is certainly striking to observe that the Bank of England’s current very low interest rates had — prior to the ‘financial crisis’ well over a decade ago – never previously been below a 2% level. Meanwhile recent OECD figures observe that annual house price growth across wealthy nations has gained over 9% in recent months — its fastest pace for 30 years. The ability of the U.K., Europe and the United States to combine ongoing stimulus and recovering economic growth levels with very low interest rates and bond yields and still not worry about inflation, is becoming more of a debate.
Fortunately for 2021 debate can remain more focused on a continued movement away from the COVID-19 challenges of last year. That has been a really positive surprise of the first seven months of the year. Now talk about debt levels and their impact on inflation, bond yields and equity market valuations will become more relevant. There are many reasons to be positive, just not
about everything almost all of the time. The key remains to stay both global and active.
The information contained in this article is for general consideration only and any opinion or forecast reflects the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. as at the date of issue and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You should not take, or refrain from taking, action based on its content and no part of this article should be relied upon or construed as any form of advice or personal recommendation. The research and analysis in this article have been procured, and may have been acted upon, by Raymond James and connected companies for their own purposes, and the results are being made available to you on this understanding.
Neither Raymond James nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon such research and analysis. If you are unsure or need clarity upon any of the information covered in this article, please contact your wealth manager.
For most investors focused on the U.K., Europe and/or the United States, July was far from an unattractive month in all but a minority of equity sectors. This pleasingly allowed a further building of year-to-date returns. Meanwhile bond market yields generally tightened further. Although fixed income markets remain on average dull performers in 2021, performance has improved in recent months.
Compared to the start of the year, such progress should allow the average investor to feel confident. And whilst challenges remain (including the generation of the term ‘pingdemic’), it is impressive
to read that more than 72.5% of U.K. adults have received two COVID-19 vaccinations so far, which has allowed both national and international travel to slowly restart over recent months
July also saw the publication of a generally well-received set of corporate earnings data and a solid IMF world economic overview, which showed anticipated growth of 6% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022.
Whilst numbers were maintained for developed market countries – including anticipated U.K. growth of 7% this year and 4.8% next year – some emerging market economies saw a reduction in their anticipated growth numbers. Whilst overall emerging-market shares hit 17-year relative lows versus developed market comparison, the biggest losses in July came in China.
It is not difficult to see considerable economic growth and population wealth growth in China over the 2020s, but recent high volatility levels have been centered on recent bouts of heightened
levels of Chinese government interventions impacting a number of important sectors. Heightened levels of financial regulation are not uncommon in any country, however the speed of policy
changes can be considerably faster in China than in more classically democratic economies.
Nevertheless opportunities for the emerging markets – including China – remain positive for this decade, aided not only by growth in population wealth but also by lower debt levels. The latter point remains (on average) at a much lower percentage of GDP compared to the developed markets. This point has over recent years been particularly reflected by central bank policy across the developed markets. It is certainly striking to observe that the Bank of England’s current very low interest rates had — prior to the ‘financial crisis’ well over a decade ago – never previously been below a 2% level. Meanwhile recent OECD figures observe that annual house price growth across wealthy nations has gained over 9% in recent months — its fastest pace for 30 years. The ability of the U.K., Europe and the United States to combine ongoing stimulus and recovering economic growth levels with very low interest rates and bond yields and still not worry about inflation, is becoming more of a debate.
Fortunately for 2021 debate can remain more focused on a continued movement away from the COVID-19 challenges of last year. That has been a really positive surprise of the first seven months of the year. Now talk about debt levels and their impact on inflation, bond yields and equity market valuations will become more relevant. There are many reasons to be positive, just not
about everything almost all of the time. The key remains to stay both global and active.
The information contained in this article is for general consideration only and any opinion or forecast reflects the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. as at the date of issue and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
You should not take, or refrain from taking, action based on its content and no part of this article should be relied upon or construed as any form of advice or personal recommendation. The research and analysis in this article have been procured, and may have been acted upon, by Raymond James and connected companies for their own purposes, and the results are being made available to you on this understanding.
Neither Raymond James nor any connected company accepts responsibility for any direct or indirect or consequential loss suffered by you or any other person as a result of your acting, or deciding not to act, in reliance upon such research and analysis. If you are unsure or need clarity upon any of the information covered in this article, please contact your wealth manager.