Battery and Lithium Technology

To meet projected EV production battery capacity will have to increase output from 455 GWh to 2,450 GWh by 2029.

Tesla plan to increase lithium-ion production with its massive Terafactory which would produce 1TWh annually.

There is currently a slight oversupply of lithium and therefore miners have seen little incentive to increase supply at present. Lithium extraction can require 3-5 years of studies, permitting and capital raising before lithium is produced.

By itself, the Terafactory would require 800,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent which equates to 2.5 times 2019’s total lithium demand.

Lithium miners have indicated that they are in no rush to bring online new projects, preferring instead to wait for demand to build and then adding supply which would inflate the lithium price and padding miners margins.

There’s speculation that Tesla will be the first automotive company to make the move into taking operating control of a lithium mine closely followed by VW and Daimler.

Electric Vehicle adoption is accelerating as governments and corporations work towards meeting climate change-related emissions reduction targets. Globally, 6.5 million EVs were sold in 2021, accounting for just under 9% of annual total car sales.

While the EV segment’s share remained small compared to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, 2021 marked a significant increase with the amount of EVs sold trebling from 2.3 million EVs sold in 2019 up to 6.5 million EVs sold in 2021.

The EV momentum continued its exponential growth into January 2022, particularly in major markets. EV sales increased by 122% in China and 94% in the United States compared to January 2021.

Agricultural Technology and Food Production

Prior to the invasion pandemic rattled supply chains and unfavorable structural trends had lifted food prices to all-time highs. Labour shortages in agriculture were exacerbated by the pandemic but represent a wider secular change; the number of self-employed US farmworkers declined 73% from 1950 to 2000 while hired hands declined 52%

Fertiliser prices have more than tripled this year due to supply constraints, with Russia being one of the world’s largest exporters. Price increases will further drive innovation into alternative fertiliser techniques such as harnessing microbes and plant based products.

Combined, Russia and Ukraine account for approx. 30% of the global wheat trade. The USDA forecast the war will lower wheat exports by at least 12%. Warfare is likely to impact global trade of sunflower oil, maize and barley.

The effects of extreme weather spurred by climate change are impacting crop yields. In 2021 drought and extreme heat led to a 10% decline in US wheat production and a 33% decline in average yield per acre of barley.

Precision technology can increase crop yields whilst reducing fertiliser, herbicide and water inputs.
AgTech forecasts suggest that the global demand for agricultural robots could reach $21bn by 2026, almost triple the market size in 2020.
Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) is the use of modified indoor environments to optimise agricultural production eg. vertical farming, hydroponics and aeroponics. CEA enclosures use up to 95% less water and require a fraction of the land as a traditional farm. CEAs in urban settings and vertical farming are identified as possible adaption strategies for climate change.

Forecasts suggest the global cybersecurity market could grow from nearly $180bn in 2021 to more than $370bn by 2028.

Cybersecurity is a persistent global concern, affecting both public and private sector entities seeking to protect against the increased risk of ransomware attacks and other online threats. As shown in the graph to the right, many well-known businesses suffered cyber-attacks in 2021.

A recent PwC survey of executives found that 69% plan to increase cybersecurity spending in 2022.

The growth of the so-called Internet of Things (IoT) presents a new entry point for hackers. By the end of 2021 there were 14.6 billion connected devices, this is due to increase 18% in 2022 and then more than double by 2027.

The US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act directs $1.7 billion in dedicated spending and about $7 billion in potential spending towards improving the country’s cybersecurity.

Cyber-attacks continue to be endemic and costly to businesses and governments through 2022 and beyond. The average data breach cost increased from $3.86 million in 2020 to $4.24 million in 2021.

A shift towards remote working continues to create significant avenues for cybercriminals to exploit. Whilst pandemic lockdowns are easing globally the shift towards working from home is likely to remain.

Russia have warned of retaliation in response to Western support of Ukraine. The Russians stand accused of the SolarWinds cyber attack in 2020 exposing sensitive data in the upper echelons of the US Government including the Treasury Department and The Department of Homeland Security. Russian intelligence services are also credited with breaking into the email servers of the White House, the State Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2014 and 2015.